Does relaxing anti-natalist policy increase fertility? An examination of the impact of the two-child policy in China on women’s fertility behavior.
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Presenter Information(s)
XIAOYAN ZHANG
Abstract or Description
China’s one-child policy was enacted in 1979 to address high fertility rates. After more than nearly 35 years, in 2012, Chinese total fertility rates reached 1.4 births per woman on average, according to National Bureau of Statistics of China (2012), well below the replacement rate. In response, the Chinese government implemented the selective two-child policy in 2012, followed by the universal two-child policy in 2016. In this paper, using data from the China Family Panel Studies between 2010 and 2020, we examine the impact of these policy changes on the probability that a woman gives birth between survey years. Specifically, we identify a woman’s fertility restriction status based on the policies in effect under the one-child policy, the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy.
Using an individual fixed-effects framework, we examine the probability of an additional birth as restrictions are lifted. Our preliminary results suggest that relaxation of the one-child policy rules for any reason (i.e. under both the selective and universal two-child policy) increases the probability of an additional birth within the next 2 years by 2.31 percentage points. When restricting the sample to women whose fertility restrictions were relaxed under specific policy changes, the following effects are observed: the double-only-child policy (allowing the birth of a second child if both parents are only children) in 2010 led to a 1.6 percentage point increase in birth probability, the selective two-child policy resulted in a 3-percentage point increase, and the universal two-child policy was associated with a 1-percentage point increase. The effect of reduced fertility restrictions is most pronounced for women aged 30 to 40, less educated women and women living in rural areas.
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Laura Argys