Sino-Kazakh Water Sharing on the Ili River

Presenter(s)

Eleanor Pugh

Presentation Number

4234

Abstract or Description

Despite nearly 30 years of negotiations, a water allocation agreement is yet to be reached for the waters of the Ili River, which spans from Xinjiang's Fruit Valley in China to Kazakhstan. On the Ili River, over water withdrawal coincides with the lingering adverse effects of Soviet water policy, creating an environmental crisis. The numerous dams on the Ili River, including eight on the Chinese side and the massive Soviet-era Kapchagay Dam in Kazakhstan enable large amounts of water withdrawal to feed irrigation in this arid region. The Ili River provides approximately 80 percent of the flow to endorheic Lake Balkhash, which has seen decreasing water levels due to the dam construction and water withdrawal, creating negative environmental impacts including increased salination and harming the fisheries, animal husbandry, and even agricultural sectors in the region. China's hegemonic relationship over the basin has precluded a successful water allocation agreement, as Kazakh officials appear hesitant to confront China over its water use out of fear of losing Chinese economic investment. While increasing temperatures induced by climate change temporarily prop up the situation by providing an increased water flow from melting glaciers in the Tian Shan mountains, this flow is expected to cease in the next 50 years. This presentation will discuss the issues on the basin and analyze the prospects for future solutions.

Mentor

Norman Graham

Comments

Lowell Monis2 months ago

Hi Eleanor, this was a great and detailed presentation! I think extending this research to other such water disputes around the world and doing a sort of compare-and-contrast may bring out more details about this issue. I also liked how you have approached every possible outlook, from the points-of-view of each of the involved countries to the climate change aspect.

• • 1 comment

Eleanor Pugh2 months ago

Thank you so much! My research on the Ili River is part of a larger research project about international water conflict, led by Professor Norman Graham. Other students are examining the case studies of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River and the Rogun Dam in Central Asia. My case study of the Ili River complements these other examples by examining the distinctive drivers behind the declining water levels of inland lakes and examines the environmental consequences of economic investment by a superpower.