The Chance to Buy an Illegal Drug: Disparities in Exposure Across Race-Ethnicity Subgroups Over Time, 2002–2024

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Presenter(s)

Lowell Monis

Abstract or Description

My main aim is to estimate the occurrence of drug purchase opportunities, with attention to variation across United States Census Bureau-defined race-ethnicity subgroups. The study population consists of non-institutionalized US civilian residents aged 12 years and older, sampled annually from 2002 to 2024 (n > 65,000/year). Following informed consent, assessments are conducted via computerized self-interviews. Each year's analysis-weighted prevalence proportion and standard error for the drug purchase opportunity experience, defined as being approached by someone selling drugs in the past 30 days, is estimated with Taylor series linearization. The estimation pipeline incorporates Bayesian inference, starting with a non-informative prior in 2002 that is iteratively updated to produce year-specific 95% credibility intervals through 2024. I present evidence that challenges the initial expectation of "no appreciable variation". The results reveal significant disparities in drug purchase opportunities, evidenced by non-overlapping 95% posterior Bayesian credibility intervals across racial-ethnic identifiers. While some subgroups, such as Asian-American individuals, show relative stability in exposure over the years, others exhibit more volatile declines. These findings suggest that the "chance to buy" is a critical, though often neglected, environmental factor that governs variations in actual drug use. By focusing on this "agent exposure opportunity," this research provides a metric for understanding the structural and social availability of substances across different communities.

Mentor

Jim Anthony